Oh my. 

Biden with a 8,144-vote lead. Heart palpitations. 

Note, there is a roughly 10,000-vote gain in Kenosha that isn’t reflected in these numbers. ThWisconsin’s Democratic Party Chair tweeted this several hours ago:

Absentee ballots are still being tallied in Milwaukee, Kenosha, and other cities. Based on everything we’ve seen, those ballots will decisively favor Biden. Green Bay hasn’t reported *any* results yet. When all votes are counted, we’re confident that Joe Biden will win Wisconsin.

— Ben Wikler (@benwikler) November 4, 2020

Milwaukee is mostly in. Kenosha will be +9,600 votes. Green Bay will add to Biden’s margin, since 32,000 absentee ballots remain uncounted. 

Update: This is the Kenosha results, which weirdly haven’t been posted by the AP. Maybe because it’s 2 am PT. 

BREAKING: after all three machines tabulated 19,700- Biden 10,103-Trump The absentee ballots in Kenosha are not enough to take over the county for Biden. Final results should be on the county website soon

— Cassidy Williams (@CassidyWtv) November 4, 2020

And what we’ve seen here, we’ll see in Michigan and Pennsylvania as well 

Based on my replies, I don’t think people have fully internalized how Democratic these mail and absentee ballots will be in MI/PA/WI. It’s going to be close, but these ballots will be overwhelmingly Democratic

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

I’ve been talking about this for days, weeks, months: the *scope* of the shift between mail-in & Election Day ballots is unlike the stuff you’re used to seeing on Election Nights. We just saw it in Kenosha, maybe momentarily in Milwaukee, & also makes MI & PA tricky to assess. https://t.co/DYp5oTd4YX

— Taniel (@Taniel) November 4, 2020

This isn’t over. But things are looking up. 


Biden cracks 50{1b1a587643a9e9b1244ae3f96d242e13c62224c25ebdf73114e48122c41a7985} of the popular vote per NYT. That number will grow

— Alex Clearfield (@AlexClearfield) November 4, 2020

Another update: Been waiting for Brown County to finish reporting, as Green Bay has delivered its final count to county HQ. But, it’s been a while and I think I’m finally about to pass out. So I’ll wrap up with these looks at the remaining question marks: 

The PA situation is obviously far from completion, but we do know there are at least 1.4 mlilion outstanding absentee ballots and so far they’re 78-21 Biden. That’s enough for him to catch up if it keeps up.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

And we have a very clear picture in Georgia, thanks to the needle’s analysis of the vote by precinct x method–stipulating that there aren’t any errors in the GA county data. There’s a lot of heavily Dem vote in the Atlanta area left. It’s enough to make Biden a narrow favorite

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

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